What a Huge Bubble

There are always "reasonable" myths support the bubbles before their broken, that's the story of the current Chinese stock market.

Many analysts argue that this turn of bull market is totally different with the former bubbles:

The rising of RMB leads to a re-estimation of nearly all the assets in China, especially real-estate and the stock.

The world wide high liquidity of money influences the supply-demand relationship which fuels the rising price.

The current performance of the corporations in the stock market have been improved greatly and are best in the history.

It is believed that the Chinese government will not interfere in the market by traditional command approach.

Seem professional, hum? But it is often much more worse of a skilled but incomplete thoughts than the common sense.

Common sense tells us that it is impossible for so many people to win the market, specially when all the people around you rushing into the game.

Common sense tells us there is little possibility to win most of players in a zero-sum game without specific advantages.

OK, now tell me, are you the smarts and the brightest?

And furthermore, the above optimistic based on some questionable assumptions:

What is the decisive factor of the stock pricing? Frankly speaking, I don't know exactly. However, the point is not the key, but the fact that NO player has thought it over before their acceptance of the "professional" ideas. That is dangerous and indicates that there has great possibility in the current market that the price has ALREADY been highly estimated because of the extremely high(avg. PE is approximately 75) preference of risk when pricing, which has sparked by the large institutes, and the common people probably even didn't know what this term(preference of risk) means.

Even if the above good news are all true, they can't guarantee the current high price. For example, if some one tells me that a stock with profit of -$0.1 valued $2 while profit $0.1 values $20, I can't believe this reasoning before he tells me why. Maybe the values of the stocks rise, but is there enough evidence that can support the current high price? No one can exactly explain how these factors decide the price and to what extend!

Some interesting things happened to Chinese government, who is trying to follow the professional approach which intend to utilize the market force rather than the commands to regulate the irrational market. But I'm very doubt for its capability because it has no experience of this extremely complicated stuff. The worst result may be, the government fails to use the market approach and the crazy will develop to a great crisis before the effective regulation found. Who will pay for this lesson? And are you still consider it a good news?

In a word, I'm not a professional and expert, but I believe the "PIGs" rather than "BULLs" and "BEARs" are the mainstream of the market, and the Bubble grows!